Earlier today, at 4:03 AM (WAT) I was scrolling on Twitter when the shocking but not shocking news of the Russia Ukraine “invasion” hit me. Why not shocking? Well, the US warned us so why act surprised.
This is the real question we should be asking is why Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation chose an invasion option. What’s the real reason behind this “special military operation”.
First of all, I’d like to say that this is my unbiased view of the entire situation down in Eastern Europe and I have no affiliation whatsoever with any of the parties involved in this crisis.
The origin of the Russia Ukraine Crisis
We all know that Ukraine gained independence from Russia in 1991 and this declaration was made by Leonid Kravchuk who at that time was the leader of the Soviet Union of Ukraine. In any of its elections since 1991, Russia has always wanted a pro-Russian leader heading the Ukrainian government and in 2005, Viktor Yushchenko took power.
Yushchenko taking power didn’t go down well with Moscow and you may ask why? Well, Yushchenko was pro-western and wanted Ukraine to join NATO. Yes, this is the same thing that has led to the escalation of the 2022 Russia Ukraine conflict. NATO promised Yushchenko in 2008 that someday, Ukraine would join the alliance which is a direct threat to Russia.
This is just one out of many causes that contributed to the build-up of this conflict.
Another notable one is pro-Russian separatists in the eastern region of Donbas declaring independence in April 2014. That region is a very important region when trying to really analyze the conflict and its build-up. Over the years, there have been several ceasefires but the fighting still continues even up to 2022.
On February 22nd, 2022, it was reported that President Putin had recognized two separatist territories located in the Donbas region. These territories are Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. According to a report by CNN, these separatist territories in the past eight (8) years had recorded the death of 14,000 people. A few days after the recognition by Putin, he officially invades Ukraine in what he calls a peace-keeping mission.
Now, this seems to be much more than Ukraine joining NATO.
The Internal Russian Politics Link
Vladimir Putin is known for always playing strongman politics and has no regard for any threat made by other bigger nations. We have heard of sanctions, sanctions, and sanctions but seems Putin always goes scot-free.
He has always played strongman politics since he was Prime Minister and it seems this method always works. Whenever it seems like his popularity in Russia is going on a downward trend, he plays the same game and it works like magic every time. It worked in 2015 when Russia invaded Syria so, why not seize this opportunity to make myself popular amongst my people.
The Return of the Soviet Union
This perhaps has to be the biggest reason why there is an escalation of the Russia Ukraine Conflict. We have known that Putin, before becoming President has always wanted his reunion, and now that he has his power, well, why not?!
First, Crimea and what was the response of the US and co, sanctions!
Then, Belarus happened and yet, nothing much has happened.
Are you still surprised that Mr. Putin has the audacity to invade another sovereign state, unprovoked for his peacekeeping mission? Well, I am not saying that the West is a saint. In global politics, no one is and that’s just the pure truth. Even the smallest country (in terms of global power) is not clean and would also want to be at the very top of the food chain if given the opportunity.
Crimea, Ukraine, and Belarus are all part of the Soviet Union and while the world has said bye-bye to the “union”, Kremlin says not yet. From my analysis, Russia wants a reunion of the union but not the way we think it would be. These states would act independently and have their government but still controlled directly controlled by Moscow. This is a big threat to the West’s dominance in Europe.
Why Washington wouldn’t want a “Reunion of the Union”
China is already given officials in Washington sleepless nights with their growing military strength, an economic superpower, and dominance in various regions such as Africa. America cannot simply afford to confront a united Soviet Union and its ally, China. It is too much for the West.
Consequences of the Russia Ukraine Conflict
If steps are not taken drastically, this could lead to the obvious which is a full-blown war in Europe triggering a massive refugee crisis and taking the region into dark times. That’s just one of the impacts of this conflict. If President Putin continues on his mission, he would eventually invade other former soviet union territories to the dismay of the West.
Another angle worth taking a look at is how China responds to Taiwan if Russia goes scot-free. China Mainland invading Taiwan is putting a gun directly on Australia’s head. The only difference is that, unlike Ukraine, there are US forces present in Taiwan but who knows what Xi Jinping is up to.
In conclusion, only time would tell and every party involved should remember that the 40 million Ukrainians in Ukraine are human beings just like the rest of us. Humanity should come before any political agenda. No blood is worth any ambition whether political or not.